Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Near Crucial Profit Point: A Market Analysis
According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) are approaching unrealized profit levels last seen during the October 2024 market correction. Currently, LTHs are sitting on an average profit of 220% on their holdings, a surprisingly modest figure considering Bitcoin’s recent surge above $107,000.
Darkfost utilized the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio to track these shifts. In March 2024, when Bitcoin reached $74,500, the MVRV hit 300%. This climbed further to 350% in December 2024 at the $108,000 peak. The current 220% gain reflects the significantly higher entry points for many LTHs during the cycle’s later stages.
Restoring Past Profitability: A Price Target Calculation
Based on an average cost basis of $33,800, Bitcoin would need to reach approximately $135,200 to restore the 300% profit level seen earlier. A return to the 357% mark from December 2024 would require a price surge to roughly $154,400. These figures align with historical patterns, suggesting that investors often sell when profits approach significant round numbers.
Historical Comparisons: Putting Things Into Perspective
A broader historical perspective reveals the existing potential for further growth. During the 2017 peak at $19,500, LTHs enjoyed unrealized profits of 4,000%. In the 2020/2021 cycle, Bitcoin’s April 2021 peak of $63,000 resulted in an MVRV of 1,230%. Interestingly, even at the November 2021 price of roughly $68,400, LTH unrealized gains had already decreased to 340%.
An analyst initially predicted a cycle top of $135,000 in October 2024. However, after analyzing updated data in May 2025, this forecast was adjusted to a range of $120,000–$150,000, with a likely peak projected between August and September 2025. This range neatly aligns with the price points necessary to bring the MVRV ratio back to previous highs.
Room for Upside, but Risks Remain
Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,750. Reduced profit margins suggest fewer LTHs are inclined to sell, potentially fueling further price increases. However, on-chain metrics alone cannot fully capture market dynamics. Spot market flows, ETF activities, and macroeconomic factors can cause sudden market reversals.
Conclusion
The current data suggests a market that isn’t yet overheated. If Bitcoin’s historical cycles serve as a guide, significant further growth is possible before LTHs secure profits at levels observed in March or December 2024. Investors, however, should carefully consider both on-chain indicators and broader market conditions before making any investment decisions.