Bitcoin Bull Run Still on Hold: Why We’re Not There Yet
Bitcoin’s Bull Market: Not Quite Here Yet
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The Bitcoin community is eagerly awaiting the start of a new bull market, especially after the recent halving in April. But according to Onchained, a CryptoQuant analyst, that moment hasn’t arrived yet. There’s a specific reason why.
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Onchained’s analysis, posted on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, focuses on the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Mourad Ratio. This proprietary indicator tracks UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) held for over six months, giving insights into market sentiment and accumulation trends among long-term Bitcoin holders. It provides valuable clues about when BTC might enter its next bull phase.
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Stability in the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio
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One key indicator is the stability of the Long-Term Holder Mourad Ratio. Historically, a stable ratio suggests the market isn’t ready for a significant upward movement. Onchained explains that a bull market typically begins only when the ratio starts to deviate negatively from these stable levels.
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Current data shows that the LTH Mourad Ratio remains steady, signaling Bitcoin’s bull run hasn’t begun yet. This stability indicates that long-term holders aren’t driving substantial price movement in the market. Patience is needed until more favorable conditions emerge.
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Understanding the Mourad Ratio
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The Mourad Ratio is calculated by dividing the Long-Term Holder Mourad Current Transaction Value (LTH MCTV) by the current Bitcoin price. This calculation reveals the average value of UTXOs aged over six months, providing a clear picture of recent accumulation trends among longer-term BTC holders.
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Technical Signs Point to a Potential Bull Run
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While Onchained’s analysis confirms that Bitcoin’s bull run hasn’t begun, other analysts are turning to historical price charts for technical clues. Bitcoin Archive, a popular Bitcoin insight platform, recently highlighted that BTC is close to a ‘bullish cross-over on the 5-day chart for the first time in 230 days.’
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The last two times this occurred, BTC surged by 79% and 74%. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could potentially rise above $100,000.
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This technical indicator, combined with the insights from the Mourad Ratio, suggests that while a bull market is not yet imminent, it might be closer than we think. It’s a reminder that the cryptocurrency market is dynamic and constantly evolving.