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24 October, 2024

Bitcoin MACD Signals Bullish Trend: Predictions for Cycle Top and Next Bear Market Bottom

24 October, 2024

Bitcoin MACD Turns Bullish: A Glimpse into Future Price Movements

As Bitcoin (BTC) navigates a minor correction, trading below the crucial $66,000 support level after repeated failed attempts to break through the $70,000 mark, analysts are closely watching technical indicators for signs of future price recoveries. One particularly noteworthy development is the bullish turn of BTC’s weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), a first since October 2023.

This shift in the MACD mirrors past market behavior, notably the significant rally during the 2021 bull market. Crypto analyst CryptoBullet has identified striking parallels between the current market trends and the 2021 rally, suggesting the potential for substantial gains ahead for Bitcoin.

Echoes of the 2021 Bull Run: New ATH on the Horizon?

CryptoBullet highlights that the last time the MACD signaled a bullish trend, BTC was trading between $20,000 and $25,000 in 2023, which preceded a remarkable surge to a new all-time high of $73,700 in March of this year. This historical context fuels optimism for significant gains as the market shows signs of recovery from recent consolidation periods.

In a recent analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter), CryptoBullet emphasizes the similarities between the current market conditions and those of the 2021 bull cycle. The analyst points to the vertical rally in 2021 followed by a mid-term correction, suggesting that while the present correction may be less severe, it has been more prolonged.

CryptoBullet explains that BTC is breaking out of this multi-month consolidation as the MACD crosses bullish once again, hinting at the possibility of a new all-time high in the latter months of the year, accompanied by a lower high on the MACD indicator.

Cycle Top of $95,000-$100,000 by Early 2025

CryptoBullet’s bullish outlook extends over the next two years, forecasting a cycle top for Bitcoin between $95,000 and $100,000, with a subsequent bear market bottom anticipated at between $23,000 and $25,000. This prediction is rooted in Fibonacci wave analysis, where CryptoBullet predicts that the confluence of the 1.618 Fibonacci level and the top of the current channel will align with his target for Wave 5.

CryptoBullet expects that once the target range of $95,000 to $100,000 is reached, anticipated between December 2024 and March 2025, Bitcoin might encounter rejection, triggering the first wave (A) of the next bear market. The analyst predicts a temporary low during the summer of 2025, followed by fluctuations often referred to as a “Dead Cat Bounce” in the market, expected between September and December 2025.

Navigating the Bear Market

CryptoBullet cautions that the most challenging phase, Wave C, could stretch throughout 2026, with a potential target of $23,000 to $25,000.

CryptoBullet acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in these projections, stating, “These are just my expectations. I try to be conservative here and not give you crazy $250,000 to $500,000 or $1 million targets.”

In his analysis, CryptoBullet also notes that these scenarios could be invalidated if a dramatic shift occurs in the macroeconomic landscape, which could lead Bitcoin to break out of its multi-year channel to the upside. In such a case, discussions around $170,000 to $200,000 targets for Bitcoin could become relevant.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $65,970, down 2% over the past 24 hours.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com