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25 September, 2024

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Retest: A Bullish Signal or a False Promise?

25 September, 2024

Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Retest: A Bullish Signal or a False Promise?

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On-chain data reveals that the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for short-term holders is currently undergoing a critical retest, potentially hinting at significant price movements for BTC.

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Short-Term Holders MVRV Ratio Retests 155-Day MA

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As observed by on-chain analyst Checkmate, the short-term holder MVRV Ratio breaking above its 155-day moving average (MA) could spark bullish action for Bitcoin. This indicator is a valuable tool for understanding market sentiment and the profitability of different investor groups.

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Deciphering the MVRV Ratio

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The MVRV Ratio measures the market value of Bitcoin held by investors against their initial investment. A ratio greater than 1 suggests overall profitability for the Bitcoin network, while a ratio below 1 indicates a prevalence of losses.

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The current focus lies on the MVRV Ratio of short-term holders (STHs), who acquired their Bitcoin within the past 155 days. This metric reveals the profit/loss status of buyers from the last five months.

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A Look at the Charts

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The Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio has surged recently, aligning with Bitcoin’s price recovery. It has edged above the 1 mark, indicating profitability for STHs. More significantly, the ratio is attempting to break above its 155-day MA.

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Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited bullish momentum whenever the STH MVRV Ratio has crossed above this line. Notably, a similar crossover earlier this year coincided with Bitcoin’s rally to a new all-time high (ATH).

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Potential for Bullish Momentum

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Should the STH MVRV Ratio successfully break beyond its 155-day MA, a renewed bullish wave for Bitcoin is possible.

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\”If the bulls get their way, and we set a weekly higher high ~$65.3k, I’d reasonably expect an attempt to the ATH,\”

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states Checkmate.

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Profit-Taking Concerns

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However, Checkmate also cautions about potential profit-taking from STHs once Bitcoin reaches the $66,100 to $70,800 range. These investors, known for their less resolute approach, could realize substantial profits at these levels, potentially dampening momentum.

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Bitcoin’s Recent Performance

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Bitcoin has experienced an 8% surge over the past week, pushing its price to the $63,700 level. The MVRV Ratio retest adds another layer of intrigue to Bitcoin’s price action.

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While the MVRV Ratio can offer insights into market sentiment, it’s crucial to consider other factors and use a holistic approach to analyze Bitcoin’s price movements. This retest presents a potential opportunity for bullish momentum, but investors should remain cautious and observe how the market reacts to the potential breakout.