Bitcoin Price Alert: Are We Nearing Another Peak?

Bitcoin (BTC) recently dipped below the $120,000 mark after hitting a new all-time high above $124,000. Currently trading around $115,557, BTC is consolidating, prompting analysts to scrutinize on-chain data for clues about its future trajectory.

CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA offers insightful analysis of long-term holder (LTH) behavior. Their study uses profit/loss metrics to gauge market sentiment. Profit bands, from 150% to 1000% above cost basis, reveal when BTC enters zones historically associated with market tops. The +500% band, in particular, has often coincided with peak selling pressure.

The analysis also incorporates a Spending Binary Indicator, reflecting LTH selling intensity. “High Spending” signals typically precede market peaks, while “Bottom Alerts” mark deep corrections. Past cycles (2017, 2021, and 2022-2023) corroborate this model. Currently, BTC resides within the 150%-350% profit band, suggesting further growth potential, although the risk of a market top increases as it nears higher bands.

Short-Term Outlook: PelinayPA suggests a range-bound short-term future, with controlled profit-taking limiting upside momentum. Continued accumulation and demand could push prices to $124,000-$178,000.

Mid-Term Outlook (late 2025): Intensified LTH selling, mirroring 2021, could signal a cycle top, potentially peaking above $150,000 before a correction.

Long-Term Outlook (2026): The absence of new bottom alerts suggests the bull cycle isn’t ending yet.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions are volatile. Always conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.