Bitcoin Price Prediction: 70% Chance of New Highs in Two Weeks?

Following the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, Bitcoin’s price has surged after a period of consolidation below $115,000. This aligns with expert forecasts predicting a new all-time high (ATH) soon, potentially within just two weeks.

Bullish Signals Emerge

Market analyst, Axel Adler, points to several bullish indicators. On X, he highlighted a premium in BTC futures compared to spot prices, with a consistently positive basis. The seven-day basis exceeding the thirty-day average further strengthens this bullish outlook. Adler estimates a 70% probability of a continued upward trend or sideways movement over the next two weeks.

He emphasizes that a confluence of bullish signals—rising prices, increasing basis, and growing open interest—would likely attract fresh long positions, significantly boosting the chances of a new ATH. Importantly, Short-Term Holder (STH) Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-scores (155-day and 365-day) are near zero, indicating a balanced market, neither overheated nor oversold.

With Bitcoin slightly above its Short-Term Realized Price, Adler anticipates consolidation followed by a potential surge. He calls this anticipated rise a new “Uptober” for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

US Stock Market Performance Fuels Bitcoin’s Rise

The recent strong performance of US stocks adds to the bullish sentiment. Analysts at The Bull Theory point to a correlation between stock market rallies and Bitcoin price action, suggesting that Bitcoin tends to rise when US equities reach new highs.

Historical data supports this: after an S&P 500 all-time high, Bitcoin’s average gains are 12% over 30 days and 36% over 90 days. Similarly, after a Nasdaq all-time high, the average gains are 16% over 30 days and 46% over 90 days. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach $131,000 and even $178,000 (S&P) or $136,000 and $199,000 (Nasdaq) respectively.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com