Bitcoin Profit-Taking: Is the Bull Run Over?

Bitcoin’s price recently dipped, trading around $117,901 after a nearly 5% weekly decline. This pause in the upward trend has some investors questioning the market’s future. However, a closer look at on-chain data reveals a more nuanced picture. While long-term holders (LTHs) are indeed taking profits, key indicators suggest significant upside potential remains.

Long-Term Holder SOPR: A Sign of Maturity, Not Exhaustion

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for LTHs (holders with Bitcoin for over 155 days) has reached a new high for 2025. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah points out that while this indicates LTHs are selling at a profit, the SOPR is still far below the 4.0 threshold historically associated with market peaks. This suggests profit-taking is occurring, but not at a level indicative of widespread selling pressure or market euphoria. The gradual increase in profit-taking may simply reflect market maturity within a continuing bull cycle.

A Look at the Derivatives Market

Further insights come from the Bitcoin derivatives market. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain highlights high open interest (around $42 billion), signifying strong trader participation. Rising funding rates indicate a prevalence of long positions, bolstering the bullish sentiment. However, this combination of high open interest and bullish funding rates also suggests a heightened risk of volatility and potential liquidations if the market experiences a sharp correction.

Navigating the Landscape

The current market dynamics represent a complex interplay of profit-taking and continued bullish sentiment. While LTHs are realizing gains, the SOPR remains below critical levels. The active derivatives market adds to the complexity, hinting at both opportunity and risk. Investors should exercise caution and manage risk appropriately while monitoring key on-chain metrics.

Chart from Tradingview. Featured image created with DALL-E.