Bitcoin Sell-Side Risk Ratio Plunges: Is a BTC Price Rebound Imminent?

Bitcoin’s price action has been relatively subdued throughout much of 2025, particularly on weekends. After a strong start to the week, BTC retreated to the $84,000 level, slipping below $83,000 by Saturday, March 29th. However, compelling on-chain data suggests a potential turning point may be near.

A Critical Indicator Points to a Potential Rebound

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a crucial development on the X platform: Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio has dropped to approximately 0.086%. This metric, which assesses the ratio of realized profits and losses to total realized market capitalization, offers insight into potential sell-side pressure.

High values typically signal significant realization and oversupply, often seen in late-stage bull markets or bear market capitulations. Conversely, low values suggest periods of low realization and volatility, characteristic of market consolidation or sideways trading. The recent drop below 0.1% is particularly significant.

Historical Precedents Suggest a Positive Outlook

As illustrated in the chart below, Bitcoin’s price has historically rebounded from local lows whenever this sell-side risk ratio dips below 0.1%. In January 2024, a similar drop propelled BTC to a then all-time high of $73,737. A subsequent drop in September 2024 paved the way for the current all-time high. This pattern suggests a potential rebound from the current price levels, given the ratio’s current value.

Important Note: External Factors Play a Role

It’s crucial to acknowledge that past rebounds have often been fueled by positive market catalysts. For example, the January 2024 surge was linked to US-based Bitcoin ETFs, while the November 2024 rally coincided with significant geopolitical events. While the sell-side risk ratio provides valuable insight, it shouldn’t be considered the sole predictor of future price movements.

Bitcoin Price Overview

At the time of writing, BTC trades around $83,100, reflecting a nearly 2% decrease over the past 24 hours.

[Insert Chart Here]

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently risky, and past performance is not indicative of future results.