Bitcoin’s $100,000 Dream: A Critical Juncture at $97,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has spent the last ten days consolidating above the crucial $90,000 support level, following its recent all-time high (ATH) of $99,645. However, a failure to decisively break above a key short-term downtrend line raises concerns of a potential drop to two-week lows. This leaves the crypto community pondering: is the rally truly paused, or just taking a breather before another surge?

November has been extraordinary for Bitcoin, boasting a remarkable 47% increase from its monthly opening to its ATH. Since November 18th, BTC has traded within a $90,000-$99,000 range, consistently holding above the lower bound despite periodic retractions. Twice, it attempted to breach the $99,000 mark, igniting investor optimism about a potential $100,000 milestone before month’s end.

Yet, a persistent resistance at a Lower High trendline has thwarted Bitcoin’s progress for the past week. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlights this as a \”moment of truth.\” A decisive daily close above this line could propel BTC toward $100,000. Conversely, continued closes below it signal a potential rejection and a return to lower price levels.

Despite a brief touch of $97,000 yesterday, BTC ended Wednesday around $95,300, marking the seventh consecutive day closing below this key resistance. A decisive close above $97,000 on Thursday is crucial to break this trendline resistance. Failure to do so increases the likelihood of another rejection and a potential drop toward lower range levels.

Adding another layer of complexity, analyst Ali Martinez points to a critical demand zone at $93,580, where a significant number of addresses accumulated BTC. Holding above this level is vital to prevent potential sell-offs from these holders. Meanwhile, a formidable resistance lies at $96,614, where a large volume of Bitcoin was acquired. Martinez also suggests the potential for a bounce fueled by the Thanksgiving Day effect, noting Bitcoin’s historical volatility around this holiday.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has been forming a one-day bullish falling wedge pattern, repeatedly testing the lower range as support and rebounding. A successful breakout from this pattern could potentially trigger a rally back toward $99,000.

With a current monthly return of 36.6% (Coinglass data), Bitcoin still has the potential for further gains in the final days of November. Regardless of the immediate outcome, November is poised to be the second-best month of the year, setting a potentially bullish stage for December.

At the time of writing, BTC trades at $95,135, representing a 1% drop in the last 24 hours. The coming days will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin will finally break above its resistance and achieve its $100,000 target or if a correction is imminent.