Bitcoin’s $100K Breakout: Is the Old Cycle Theory Obsolete?

CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, has dramatically revised his bearish outlook following Bitcoin’s stunning surge past the $100,000 mark. This unexpected rally has completely shifted market sentiment, prompting a bullish reversal from analysts who recently predicted lower prices.

In a recent X post, Ju explained the market’s departure from previous cycles. He highlights the diminished influence of traditional market movers—large Bitcoin whales, retail investors, and miners. Previously, their selling activity was a key indicator of cycle peaks. However, the market’s resilience to large sell-offs suggests a fundamental shift.

Ju attributes this change to increased market diversity. The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 (fictional date for this example) introduced significant institutional liquidity. This influx of capital from institutional investors, alongside retail participation, has created a market capable of absorbing even substantial whale sell-offs without significant price drops.

Given this transformed market dynamic, Ju suggests it’s time to abandon traditional cycle theories. The uncertainty surrounding liquidity sources necessitates a new analytical approach. He emphasizes the importance of monitoring institutional and ETF investment flows, arguing that this new liquidity could easily overshadow even the largest whale sell-offs. “We should focus on fresh institutional liquidity rather than worrying about old whale selling,” he stated.

While acknowledging the absence of clear bullish or bearish signals regarding the profit-taking cycle, Ju notes that the market is still absorbing the new liquidity. Indicators, he says, remain near the borderline. Bitcoin’s price, however, continues its upward trajectory, surpassing $100,000 and aiming for new all-time highs, with a staggering 99% of Bitcoin holders currently in profit according to IntoTheBlock.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com