Bitcoin’s 2021 Repeat: Is a Final Crash Imminent?

Bitcoin surged past $105,000 Tuesday morning in Europe, recovering from a weekend dip below six figures—a level unseen since May. But veteran technical analyst Quantum Ascend (@quantum_ascend) warns this might be a temporary reprieve. He points to striking similarities between the current Bitcoin price action and the 2021-2022 cycle, highlighting a repeating pattern: initial surge, peak, decline, second peak, followed by a corrective sequence.

Quantum Ascend’s analysis, presented through side-by-side charts, reveals an almost identical pattern. He dismisses the idea that last Friday’s sell-off signified capitulation. Instead, he foresees a relief rally to approximately $107,000–$108,000 before a final downturn. This projected drop could land Bitcoin in a critical price range between the 0.702 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracements of the rally from October 2022’s $58,000 breakout – potentially between $96,500 and $92,000, mirroring the 2021 low.

He interprets the current decline as the C-wave of a larger flat correction, further subdividing into a five-wave impulse. Wave three seems complete, and wave four might lead to a short altcoin rally before another price drop. Quantum Ascend draws parallels to July 2021, when Bitcoin saw a 20% bounce before its final slide, suggesting that a significant news event might trigger a similar temporary relief rally before another substantial drop.

The analyst highlights the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap at $92,000, attracting what he calls ‘average-retail’ bids in a ‘washing machine’ effect where large players provide liquidity then withdraw it. Despite this cautious outlook, he maintains long-term bullishness, having recently purchased Bitcoin and advocating dollar-cost averaging for his followers. His upside target for the subsequent advance is $132,000, a level he sees as significant confluence point, potentially coinciding with a surge in altcoins.

The key price levels to watch are the 0.702–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone and the potential $108,000 resistance. A break below support without an interim bounce could signal a quicker-than-expected final decline, paving the way for a significant period of market growth. While urging viewers to remain calm, Quantum Ascend expresses considerable excitement, suggesting this period may very well represent the onset of a major upward trend.

At the time of writing, BTC traded at $105,077.