Bitcoin’s Crucial Support Level: Will it Reach $180,000 by Year’s End?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently consolidating around the $119,000 mark, following a recent all-time high above $123,000. While this consolidation period presents a mixed outlook, a closer look at on-chain data reveals both bullish and bearish signals.
Mixed Signals from On-Chain Data
Recent increases in BTC exchange reserves, as noted by CryptoQuant analyst Chairman Lee, suggest elevated profit-taking. This, coupled with increased deposits from large holders and miners, could exert short-term downward pressure. However, these inflows remain relatively low compared to previous market peaks, suggesting a different dynamic than earlier this year.
Conversely, the declining Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) count points towards long-term accumulation. This trend, often indicative of strong holder conviction, suggests reduced short-term selling pressure as investors consolidate their holdings.
Institutional and ETF flows remain robust, adding a bullish layer. Year-to-date, approximately $50 billion has flowed into Bitcoin investment products, despite temporary pauses for profit-taking. Data from SoSoValue shows four consecutive months of positive inflows into US-listed spot BTC ETFs, totaling over $18 billion since April 2025, exceeding $151.6 billion in total net assets.
Technical Analysis and Price Targets
Chairman Lee identifies the $116,400 area as crucial support. A break below this level could trigger a correction toward $112,000-$110,000. Conversely, holding above $116,000 could propel Bitcoin towards $124,000-$130,000. The analyst emphasizes that maintaining support above $110,000 is vital for the continuation of the overall bullish trend. Continued robust ETF and institutional inflows could pave the way for the ambitious $180,000 year-end target.
Cautious Optimism
While bullish indicators are present, some caution is warranted. On-chain data reveals increasing distribution by long-term holders, while short-term investors are entering the market, a pattern historically observed before local tops. However, the Bitcoin short-term holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) suggests further price growth potential remains.
At the time of writing, BTC trades at $119,241, up 0.9% in the last 24 hours. The journey to $180,000 remains dependent on whether Bitcoin can successfully defend its key support levels.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.