Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Shattered: Institutional Investors Rewrite the Rules
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s recent revelation has sent shockwaves through the crypto community: Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is dead. His announcement follows a public admission of a previous incorrect market prediction, highlighting a fundamental shift in the market dynamics.
This paradigm shift is attributed to the significant influx of institutional investors. Instead of the familiar pattern of whale accumulation followed by retail frenzy, we now see corporate treasuries and Bitcoin Spot ETFs acting as a stabilizing force. In the first half of the year, treasury companies purchased double the amount of BTC compared to ETFs, demonstrating the immense capital entering the market to absorb selling pressure from veteran players.
“#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead. My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds. Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales.” – Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju)
Ki Young Ju initially raised concerns in March, when Bitcoin traded around $83,000. Traditional on-chain metrics painted a bearish picture, but a surprising rebound in April, pushing prices beyond $112,000 and even reaching $123,000 this month, forced a reassessment. This rapid turnaround exposed the limitations of the old cycle theory, as institutional players operate under different motivations than retail investors.
The emergence of major corporate holders like MicroStrategy, now Strategy, and other treasury-focused firms, treating Bitcoin as a reserve asset, has fundamentally changed the game. The consistent buying pressure from spot ETFs adds another layer to this new, more stable market structure.
This view is echoed by prominent figures such as Michael Saylor, who declares the bear market era over, and Samson Mow and CZ, who project Bitcoin reaching $1 million. Robert Kiyosaki shares this bullish outlook, highlighting the stabilizing influence of large-scale institutional investment.
This signifies a new era in Bitcoin, where the influence of retail speculation is tempered by the significant and consistent involvement of institutional investors. The future of Bitcoin’s price action looks less volatile and more driven by long-term strategies than previous cycles. This creates a more resilient and less predictable market landscape.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView