Bitcoin’s November Peak? Expert Says Not So Fast!

The crypto market is abuzz with predictions of a Bitcoin peak, with some analysts pointing to October or November. But Quinten Francois, a seasoned market commentator, begs to differ. He argues that a Q4 2025 top is highly unlikely, drawing on historical data and market psychology.

Why November is Too Soon

Francois highlights the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. In both years, altseason – when altcoins outperform Bitcoin – began in Q1. The subsequent retail-driven cycle took 9 to 12 months to complete. Since altseason hasn’t fully begun this year (the ETH/BTC ratio is only now reversing), a peak in the next few months is improbable. The influx of retail investors typically takes 9-12 months to build to market frenzy. This pushes a potential peak into Q2 or Q3 2026, according to Francois.

Altcoin Cycle: The Key Determinant

Francois acknowledges that a major top this year is *possible* only if altseason fails to materialize, or if a major unforeseen event drastically alters the market. However, he deems this scenario extremely unlikely.

Bitcoin’s Historic Bullish Setup

In a separate post, Francois points out that Bitcoin is currently exhibiting its most significant bullish setup ever, referencing the recent retest of an all-time-high ascending trendline. This positive outlook, coupled with the historical cycle analysis, strengthens his case against a near-term peak.

What about Price Targets?

While Francois hasn’t offered a price prediction, other analysts suggest targets between $140,000 and $200,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $114,460.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.