Bitcoin’s Promising Q4: Will the Next Two Weeks Decide its Fate?
While the broader cryptocurrency market remains relatively stagnant, Bitcoin (BTC) is making a determined push to reclaim its recent highs as a solid support level. Following a period of short-term price swings triggered by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate adjustments, Bitcoin appears poised for a positive month-end close.
Bitcoin’s Multi-Month Bullish Run?
Bitcoin recently retested the $117,000 resistance point for the first time in almost a month, only to encounter resistance. Since late August, the cryptocurrency has traded within the $107,000-$116,000 range, dipping to its recent lows at the beginning of September. This retracement led many to anticipate a repeat of the historically weak September performance for BTC.
Historical data from CoinGlass reveals that Bitcoin’s September performance has generally been negative over the years, with an average return of -2.99%. However, the past two years have shown a different trend, with positive returns of 3.91% and 7.29% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
Analyst Crypto Jelle suggests that with less than two weeks remaining in September, Bitcoin is shaping up for a potentially strong multi-month upward trend. Last week’s recovery from the early September dip, breaking through the critical $114,000 level and establishing it as support, supports this view. Currently, Bitcoin shows a positive return of 6.35% for September—its second-best performance for this month on record.
Jelle highlights that a positive September for Bitcoin has often been followed by positive performance in the subsequent 2, 3, or even 6 months. Therefore, if this positive momentum continues, Q4 could hold very promising results for BTC investors.
Key Levels and Volatility
Analyst Rekt Capital emphasizes Bitcoin’s weekly close above $114,000 and its current retest of this level as support. Holding this level is crucial; a break below could signal a downturn. Conversely, maintaining this support level increases the likelihood of a continuing upward trend.
Market analysts anticipated short-term volatility surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The expectation of a 25 basis point cut suggested a potential dip followed by a recovery, as confirmed by Altcoin Sherpa, who predicted the possibility of price corrections and renewed upward movement into late September and early October.
Following the Fed’s announcement of a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, Bitcoin briefly tested the $114,000 support and $116,000 resistance levels before stabilizing.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.