Bitcoin’s September Dip: A Repeat of History or a New Chapter?
Bitcoin recently experienced a slight dip, falling to $107,000—its lowest point since July—before rebounding above $112,000. This fluctuation has ignited a debate among analysts regarding Bitcoin’s trajectory throughout September and into the fourth quarter.
September’s Historical Performance
Historically, September hasn’t been Bitcoin’s strongest month in post-halving years. Data reveals a pattern of declines in 2013, 2017, and 2021. This historical trend leads some experts, like Benjamin Cowen of ITC Crypto, to predict a potential retest of key support levels before a Q4 upswing. Cowen highlights the 20-week simple moving average as a significant indicator, suggesting the recent pullback aligns with previous cycles.
Diverging Opinions
However, not all analysts share Cowen’s optimistic outlook. Some argue that this year’s cycle is deviating from the norm. Unlike previous years where August saw significant gains followed by September dips, August 2025 witnessed a 6.25% Bitcoin loss. This divergence has led some to believe that macroeconomic factors, such as potential interest rate cuts, are outweighing typical cyclical patterns.
Is the Bottom In?
Despite the cautious forecasts, others suggest Bitcoin’s September low may already be behind us. The recent price action—opening at $108,200, peaking at $110,100, dipping to $107,000, and then rebounding—has fuelled this argument. This sequence suggests the market might avoid establishing new lows this month.
Cowen’s Perspective
Cowen maintains that corrections following new highs are integral to Bitcoin’s cyclical pattern. He emphasizes August’s record peak as reinforcing this historical blueprint. In his view, the pullback towards the 20-week SMA is less a warning than a precursor to a strong year-end rally.
The Long-Term View
Despite the uncertainty surrounding September’s performance, most experts agree on Bitcoin’s long-term bullish outlook. Short-term volatility is unlikely to significantly impact the anticipated higher prices in the coming years.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView