Ethereum’s Four-Month Slump: Is a Bottom in Sight for ETH/BTC?

Ethereum (ETH) has endured a challenging period, registering four consecutive months of price declines, culminating in an 18.47% drop in March. This prolonged bearish trend, reminiscent of the 2022 bear market, has ignited debate among analysts regarding the potential for a bottom and the possibility of further price declines.

ETH/BTC Ratio Plunges to Five-Year Low

The recent drop in the Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio to a five-year low of 0.021 on March 30th underscores ETH’s underperformance against Bitcoin. This ratio serves as a crucial indicator of relative value. The last time this ratio was observed at 0.021, ETH traded between $150 and $300 in May 2020.

Data from Token Terminal reveals a concerning drop in Ethereum’s monthly fees to $22 million in March 2025, the lowest level since June 2020. This signifies reduced network activity and waning market interest. Lower transaction fees often indicate decreased network utility and demand.

Despite this bearish outlook, analyst VentureFounder suggests a potential ETH/BTC bottom might form within the coming weeks, possibly between 0.017 and 0.022, implying a potential for further short-term decline before a recovery. They stated:

“Maybe another lower low RSI and one more push downward. Lots of similarity with 2018-2019 Fed tightening & QE cycle, expecting the first higher high after May FOMC when Fed ends QT & begin QE.”

Related: Ethereum price down almost 50% since Eric Trump’s ‘add ETH’ endorsement

Historical Precedents Suggest a Short-Term Bottom

Historically, ETH has experienced three or more consecutive bearish monthly candles five times, each instance followed by a short-term bottom. Notably, the longest streak of consecutive red months, seven in 2018, was followed by an 83% price surge.

In 2022, after three consecutive bearish months, ETH consolidated for nearly a year, with the bottom established during the third bearish month (June 2022). Historically, Ethereum boasts a 75% probability of a positive month in April.

Considering Ethereum’s past quarterly performance, Q2 has historically exhibited the fewest drawdowns. With average Q2 returns reaching 60.59%, the prospects for positive returns in April appear promising.

Related: Why is Ethereum (ETH) price up today?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.