Swan’s Bold Prediction: Is This Bitcoin’s Final Cycle?
Bitcoin’s price hovers just above $105,000, exhibiting its lowest realized volatility in nearly two years. However, Los Angeles-based financial services firm Swan, known for its Bitcoin-only focus, believes the market is poised for its most dramatic price shift yet. Is this your last chance to buy?
In a recent X thread, Swan argued that Bitcoin’s typical four-year boom-and-bust cycle is evolving. They posit this as “the last rotation,” a quiet transition of coins from retail speculators to institutions with long-term investment strategies.
“People less committed to the long term are exiting…and a whole new class of investors is entering,” Swan quoted Michael Saylor, highlighting the shift from retail traders to corporate treasuries, ETFs, and multinational giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. 2025 has been unexpected. Unlike previous cycles (2013, 2017, and 2021), which saw sharp price increases in the third year, this year has shown significant, yet less volatile movements.
Swan suggests this apparent “boredom” masks an unseen supply squeeze: long-term holders taking profits above $100,000 while persistent buyers steadily acquire the available Bitcoin. These “long-only buyers,” according to Swan, are corporations whose purchases effectively remove Bitcoin from circulation.
The thread describes three key rotations: between entities (early adopters giving way to corporations); between intentions (speculation shifting to long-term allocation); and between generations (Millennials inheriting wealth and investing in Bitcoin).
Swan believes these rotations are irreversible due to supply constraints. The firm points to a concerning economic environment – a weakening US dollar alongside rising bond yields – as potentially pushing capital towards Bitcoin as a safe haven.
Swan’s conclusion? This isn’t just another Bitcoin cycle, but the culmination of an era. Selling now, they warn, means handing your Bitcoin to institutions who will hold it indefinitely. The current calm, Swan believes, is the quiet before a massive liquidity event.
Swan urges caution, emphasizing that the available Bitcoin supply is dwindling and the new buyers are in it for the long haul. If their prediction is correct, the current market stillness might be the prelude to a generational surge in Bitcoin’s price.
At press time, BTC traded at $104,605. Featured image created with DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com