XRP ETF Approval Odds Soar: Is an ETF Inevitable After Ripple’s SEC Victory?

The crypto world is buzzing with optimism about the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). The recent resolution of the lengthy legal battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has ignited this wave of excitement.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s announcement on March 19th that the SEC would drop its appeal marked a pivotal moment. This effectively ended the protracted $1.3 billion unregistered securities lawsuit that began in December 2020. The implications for XRP’s future are significant.

Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, immediately voiced his belief that XRP ETF approval is the next logical step. In a post on X, he declared it “obvious” that SEC approval is merely a “matter of time.” He even predicted involvement from major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity.

Polymarket Predicts High Probability of XRP ETF Approval in 2025

Adding weight to this prediction, users on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket are overwhelmingly bullish. As of March 26th, Polymarket assigned an 86% probability to the approval of an XRP-based ETF in 2025. This market, with a volume of $55,000 at the time of writing, indicates significant confidence in the possibility.

The bet will resolve by December 31st, 2025, upon SEC confirmation or rejection of an XRP ETF application. Interestingly, the odds for approval *before* July 31st, 2025, stand at a comparatively lower 42%, suggesting a more cautious outlook on a quicker timeline.

While Polymarket is a prediction market, its historical accuracy is notable. Dune Analytics data shows a predictive success rate exceeding 90% a month prior to market resolution, lending credibility to these current predictions.

Related: SEC Plans Further Crypto Roundtables

Moderate XRP Price Reaction to SEC Victory

Although the Ripple-SEC resolution is a monumental victory, its impact on XRP’s price has been relatively muted. While a 5% increase from $2.32 to approximately $2.44 (based on CoinGecko data) is positive, many analysts believe this positive development was already factored into the market price. Nicolai Sondergaard of Nansen, for instance, indicated that this outcome was widely anticipated.

Magazine: Solana’s Potential Despite Market Downturn