XRP Price Trend: A Repeat of Past Crashes?

Since its multi-year high near $3.40 in January, XRP has experienced a significant price drop, losing over 40%. This decline has raised concerns among analysts, with some suggesting a deeper downturn may be on the horizon. Is history repeating itself?

Unraveling the XRP Price Mystery: A Look at Historical Data

Glassnode’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data for XRP points towards a potential extended price correction. This on-chain metric, which reflects the aggregate unrealized profits and losses of XRP holders, has historically been a reliable indicator of market turning points. Past cycles show NUPL peaking in the ‘euphoria’ zone before major price tops, followed by a sharp decline through ‘denial’ and ‘capitulation’ phases.

In 2018, a surge above $3.00, accompanied by a high NUPL, preceded a staggering 90% price crash to below $0.30. A similar pattern unfolded in 2021, with a peak near $1.96 leading to a 75% drop to $0.50. Now, in 2025, XRP’s NUPL has once again entered the ‘denial’ zone, raising the specter of another significant price correction.

The current price consolidation between $1.80 and $3.40, following a rapid 585% rally in just two months, adds to the uncertainty. This rally was fueled by several factors, including the US presidential election results, optimism surrounding the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit, and anticipation of a potential XRP ETF approval.

Despite these positive fundamentals, the technical analysis suggests a potential bearish divergence. The recent price peak coincided with a lower high in the RSI indicator, echoing a similar pattern observed before the 2021 price crash.

A breakdown below the 50-week EMA could trigger a further decline towards the 200-week EMA, potentially resulting in a significant price drop. However, it’s important to note that market predictions are inherently uncertain, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments involve risk, and you should conduct your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.